Archive for the ‘Public Pensions – General’ Category

NCPERS Progagandizing

Spewing faulty research commissioned by misguided public unions the National Conference of Public Employee Retirement Systems (NCPERS) has taken to playing the Frank Drebin role:
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And according their latest ‘research’ brief, they are being insulting about it now:

Pension funds are resilient and well managed. They have stood the test of time for more than 100 years through economic ups and downs. If state and local legislators had kept their side of the bargain over the years by making scheduled payments on time, most critics of public pensions would have to find another hobby. (page 2)

It is that ‘if’ that disturbs us hobbyists.
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New Jersey Last Again

This time it is in the Pew Charitable Trusts long-term analysis of how well state revenues matched expenses between fiscal years 2002 and 2015 which concluded:

New Jersey had the largest deficit, with aggregate revenue able to cover only 92.4 percent of aggregate expenses, followed by Illinois (94.3 percent). They were the only two states with aggregate shortfalls exceeding 5 percent of total expenses, and the only ones with annual deficits in each of the 14 years.

 

The Pew report went on to clarify:

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Mercatus Mushrooming Costs

Ranking states by fiscal condition, as the Mercatus Center has done for FY12, FY13, FY14, and now FY15 based on state data reports, gives us a clue as to what an apathetic public might owe for public pensions, retiree health care benefits (OPEBs), and regular debt but since factors for calculating the values of pensions and OPEBs are questionable (and likely understated) while repudiation is probable to varying degrees the public remains mostly in the dark there.

Whereas borrowing by states in the bond market is relatively transparent, benefit costs fall prey to the actuarial/political delusion machine resulting in this trend:

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More on Mercatus Rankings of the States

The Mercatus Center ranking of the fiscal condition of the states included spreadsheets on unfunded OPEB and pension liabilities (using ‘risk-free’ rates) that approach a total of $6 trillion:

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Public Plans Data: 15-Year Trend

When reviewing the numbers collected by the Public Plans Data people from state and local government CAFRs and actuarial valuations you have to consider the purpose of those calculations (to develop low-ball contributions). With that in mind a clear trend is visible over those 15 years.

From the earliest year (2001 in most cases) of data to the latest (2016 for most) the plans went from $40 billion in excess assets to a deficit of $1.33 trillion with the combined funded ratio going from 101.84% to 72.04%.

These plans improved their funding:

  • DC Police & Fire: 91.61% to 110.8%
  • Louisiana State Parochial Employees: 92.29% to 97.21%
  • Oklahoma PERS: 82.6% to 93.2%
  • Oklahoma Police: 91.4% to 98.7%
  • South Dakota RS: 96.4% to 100%
  • TN Political Subdivisions: 90.36% to 98.79%
  • West Virginia Teachers: 21% to 65.41%

While everywhere else the funding situation worsened, led by…..

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Public Plans Data Takeaway: Bad Actuarial Assumptions

The numbers collected by the Public Plans Data people have the helpful features of an interactive data browser that goes back to 2001 from which we can compare the worst funded plans in 2001 when the total combined funded ratio was 102.02% for the 161 plans in the survey to the latest data (a combination of 2015 and 2016) for 170 plans with a total funded ratio of 74.33%.

There have been several sham explanations for this drop (market crashes, missed contributions) but this fifteen-year period has also seen extraordinary earnings growth (especially in alternative investments) with several public retirement systems actually cutting benefits and most governments putting in their full required contributions.

The real reason…..

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Public Plan Data – 2017 Update

According to their email announcement:

http://www.PublicPlansData.org, the free, comprehensive database of national, state, system, and plan level pension data, has been updated to include 2016 data base on CAFRs and actuarial reports released by May 31, 2017.  PPD’s sample spans fiscal years 2001 to 2016 and includes 170 plans (114 state-run and 56 locally-run) which account for 95 percent of state/local pension assets and members in the US.

There is a data dump that took some manipulation (and paring down to plans with what looked like complete data) and here are my highlights:
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