NJ Actuarial Reports – The Believable Numbers 6/30/20

The June 30, 2020 actuarial reports for the New Jersey Retirement System are now all out (it took a couple of weeks to get the PFRS report online) and there are a few numbers therein that can be taken seriously (none involving liabilities or even the market value of assets considering all those self-valued alternative investments). The main purpose of these official actuarial reports is to determine the ‘required’ contributions which practically all parties have a vested interest in understating so we get a bunch of fanciful numbers where possible. However, these numbers you can’t pretty up:

When you put these believable numbers in historical perspective going back to 6/30/11 a definite pattern emerges with outflow steadily rising and inflow varying with political whims.

3 responses to this post.

  1. Posted by MJF on May 13, 2021 at 7:43 am

    “Ethel!! Take the car to your brothers place. That repo man has circled the block twice now.”


  2. Posted by Tough Love on May 13, 2021 at 10:50 am

    Off Topic ………. but VERY telling, as it’s indeed unusual for a Public Sector Union Official to so brazenly admit to the COLLUSION with Elected Officials ……..

    Quoting from THIS source (from today’s pensiontsunami) ..


    For LAUSD, the teacher’s union is continually active in electing board members, and for a simple reason.

    In a recent Orange County Register editorial, Will Swaim, President of the California Policy Center, provided the following observation:

    California’s government unions raise and spend $2 billion per election cycle, dwarfing the contributions of all other interests combined. They bankroll campaigns that benefit candidates left and right knowing that, once in office, those newly elected officials will be sitting directly across the negotiating table from union negotiators, eager to approve labor contracts that enhance union power in the workplace, and deliver higher pay and benefits for union members.

    Few would brag openly about this legal corruption. But former Los Angeles teachers’ union president Alex Caputo-Pearl did. Last summer, he told members of his United Teachers Los Angeles union to campaign for a more pliant Los Angeles Unified school board.

    “We have a unique power — we elect our bosses,” he said. “It would be difficult to think of workers anywhere else who elect their bosses. We do. We must take advantage of it. … If we win, they will decide how the hundreds of millions of dollars in additional money is used. They will be across the bargaining table from us in our huge full contract negotiations in 2022.”

    Pay particular attention to the LAST paragraph.


  3. Posted by geo8rge on May 13, 2021 at 1:27 pm

    “a definite pattern emerges with outflow steadily rising and inflow varying with political whims.”

    To me it looks like, 6/30/11 to 6/30/20, that payouts were growing 5% a year until 2017 or so, when cost of living increases for retirees was frozen. After that benefits payouts have been growing 3.5% or so. It is not clear how they cap medical costs to such a low rate of growth, but apparently they do.


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