Unreported Truths about COVID-19 and Lockdowns

This 25-page samizdat could pass for a giveaway in an Amazon order, which I first thought it was when I opened the box. Excerpts follow (though without page numbers this time since there are no page numbers).

Then, on Monday, March 16, Imperial College publicly released its now-infamous research report predicting coronavirus might kill a half-million Briton and two million Americans if governments didn’t act immediately to close schools and businesses. Worse, the report forecast 1.1 million Americans and 250,000 people in the United Kingdom could die even with months of efforts to reduce the damage.

When I read the report that Monday night, I noticed a chart on page 5 showing the likelihood of death in different age ranges. The chart showed coronavirus was more than 100 times as likely to kill people over 80 than under 50. Yes, 100 times. Peole under 30 were at very low risk.

The failure of the models should have raised an even more crucial question: setting aside the massive economic societal harms they’d caused, had the lockdowns even helped control the spread of the coronavirus at all?

Why did the key predictive models that policymakers used when they agreed to lockdowns prove so inaccurate?

Third, and most importantly, the topline death figure does not account for the fact that the deaths will be heavily concentrated among the very old and sick. More than half would likely have died within weeks or months in any case, as Neil Ferguson said in his British testimony. From any practical point of view, those deaths are unpreve3ntable. Their timing is a function of the coronavirus, but their cause is underlying conditions such as cancer or heart disease or dementia. Meanwhile, children and young adults are at minimal risk from the virus.

Thus – in a worst-case scenario – if we took no steps to mitigate its spread or protect vulnerable people, a completely unchecked coronavirus might kill between 0.075 and 0.28 percent of the United States population – between 1 in 360 to 1 in 1,300 Americans. This is higher than the seasonal flu in most years. Influenza is usually said to have a fatality rate among symptomatic cases of 1 in 1,000 and an overall fatality rate of around 1 in 2,000. However, influenza mutates rapidly, and its dangerousness varies year by year. The coronavirus appears far less dangerous than the Spanish flu a century ago, which was commonly said to kill 1 in 50 of the people it infected.

The median age of people killed by the coronavirus is roughly 80 to 82.

The pattern is the same everywhere. Extremely elderly people are far more likely to die of SARS-COV-2 than anyone else. That is especially true for those living in nursing homes and assisted living facilities. Those people account for about 40 to 50 percent of all deaths from COVID in the United States. A figure of 43 percent has been widely used. It probably understates the real total because in some states, including New York, nursing home residents who die in hospitals are counted as hospital deaths.

Notably the CDC did not require a positive coronavirus test for physicians, coroners, or health departments to find that the virus had caused the death. “Should ‘COVID-19’ be reported on the death certificate only with a confirmed test? [No], COVID-19should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death. [Emphasis added.]”

An even more serious and ultimately insoluble problem in the court comes not from the coding of some deaths that are clearly unrelated to the virus as COVID-related, but because the vast majority of people who die after becoming infected with coronavirus are old and unwell. In these cases, the distinction between dying WITH coronavirus as opposed to FROM coronavirus can be nearly impossible to make.

Yes, coronavirus kills. It’s not alone.

38 responses to this post.

  1. Posted by Tough Love on October 7, 2020 at 10:42 pm

    You can’t make this stuff up …………

    News article: “Trump returns to Oval Office, declares himself cured of coronavirus”

    Did you get that ……….. he DECLARES himself cured.
    ————————–
    Oh, he ALSO called his experience getting the Corona Virus a …….. “blessing from God”.
    ————————–

    LOL ………….I “declare” Trump a “blessed” IDIOT !

    Reply

    • Posted by geo8rge on October 8, 2020 at 5:02 am

      False positive? I don’t read anything about how the rate of false positives is being analyzed.

      The super-spreader Sturgis Motorcycle rally does not seem to have generated many (any?) deaths even though it looks like it was optimal to spread contagion across the US. Orthodox Jews should be dying in large numbers due to their non compliance with government edicts but they are not.

      Reply

      • Posted by MJF on October 8, 2020 at 3:51 pm

        Wow had not thought of that. Real case studies that should be scrutinized in real time hour by hour. But they will never see the light of day, Just averages and models and bs ad infinitum. Screw it, my grill is always on and lots of takers.

        Reply

    • Posted by geo8rge on October 8, 2020 at 5:21 am

      “There Are Trillions At Stake…” – How Washington Really Works, & Why Its Denizens Despise Trump

      https://www.zerohedge.com/political/there-are-trillions-stake-how-washington-really-works-why-its-denizens-despise-trump

      Reply

      • Posted by Tough Love on October 8, 2020 at 11:05 am

        Great link. The sentence that “popped” was this one ………..

        “This construct sets up the quid-pro-quo of influence, although much of it is fraught with plausible deniability.”

        Because it SO ACCURATELY described (NOT only what was the subject of this article, but) how Taxpayers get cheated by the ludicrously excessive Public Sector pensions & benefits that result from the collusion and underhanded deal-making between the Public Sector Unions and our Elected Officials.

        Reply

      • UDS

        Union Derangement Syndrome

        Quoting Tough Love:

        “He’s is correct in that the bulk of the over-compensation comes from the lower and middle income groups, and is PRIMARILY coming from MUCH more generous healthcare benefits (both while Active, and especially in Retirement) and Retirement security…”

        (he)”…advocates against Public Sector pension/benefit “reforms” by accurately suggesting out that such reforms would likely mean lower pensions and benefits for those groups (the lower and some middle income workers)…”
        —————————————–
        Of all the web blogs, in all the towns, in all the world, she logs into John’s.

        Being “correct” and “accurate” apparently is not enough.

        Two things,
        1. That (union) “collusion and underhanded deal-making” is dwarfed by all the other K-street and ALEC shenanigans. Has to be. If public sector workers are 15 percent of the labor market, and only half to two thirds are unionized, they are far outnumbered by the private sector business and special interest “collusion and underhanded deal-making.”

        “Whatever slice you look at, business interests dominate, with an overall advantage over organized labor of about 16-to-1. Even among PACs — the favored means of delivering funds by labor unions — business has a close to 7-to-1 fundraising advantage.”
        (Opensecrets)

        Public sector unions are playing defense… badly.

        2. “Providing pensions, healthcare, and retiree healthcare to public employees, even at the lowest income levels, is a policy decision, and it is expensive.”
        (Quoting Stephen Douglas)

        You may not agree with the policy decision, but in due time, you will grudgingly admit that S Moderation Douglas is, once again, correct. It is ubiquitous. Even in states and countries with little to no union influence.

        That “popping” you experienced might have been an aneurysm, sir.

        Just trying to help.

        Reply

        • Posted by Tough Love on October 8, 2020 at 2:53 pm

          lol …… you 2-faced piece of dog-manure.

          Why did you only quote the first 2 paragraphs of my comment instead of ALL of it ….. my FULL comment being posted below along with a link to the article and ALL of it’s comments (which are certainly worthwhile reading) …

          https://yankeeinstitute.org/2020/09/30/study-finds-connecticut-government-employees-earn-28-percent-more-than-private-sector-costing-taxpayers-3-7-billion/
          ————————

          My FULL comment:

          In 3 separate comments, one of the commentators ends each his comment with “Where do you propose to cut that $2.8 billion per year?”

          He’s is correct in that the bulk of the over-compensation comes from the lower and middle income groups, and is PRIMARILY coming from MUCH more generous healthcare benefits (both while Active, and especially in Retirement) and Retirement security (via rich DB pension for Public Sector works vs modest 410K DC Plans in the Private Sector).

          That commentator is a retired CA Public Sector worker who consistently advocates against Public Sector pension/benefit “reforms” by accurately suggesting out that such reforms would likely mean lower pensions and benefits for those groups (the lower and some middle income workers) ……….. as though this is an unacceptable thing to do.

          Does it have LESS of a negative financial impact on the Taxpayers that pay for that excess because it comes from these groups?

          Do Public Sector workers in the these groups DESERVE often 2+ times as generous (and hence 2+X more costly) Taxpayer-Paid-For retirement security and healthcare benefits than what their Private Sector counterparts get?

          I put forth that the answer to both questions is NO.
          ==========================

          Stephen, You are nothing but a grossly deceptive and misleading mouthpiece for the Public Sector Unions/workers/retirees …. and with a To-Hell-With-The-Taxpayers attitude.

          Reply

          • TL easy does it….calling him dog shit?

          • Posted by Tough Love on October 8, 2020 at 5:27 pm

            Well earned !

          • Posted by Rex the Wonder Dog! 🐶🐶🐶🦴🦴🦴 on October 10, 2020 at 3:44 pm

            Stephen, You are nothing but a grossly deceptive and misleading mouthpiece for the Public Sector Unions/workers/retirees …. and with a To-Hell-With-The-Taxpayers attitude.

            Posted by E: TL easy does it….calling him dog shit?

            Posted by Tough Love: Well earned !
            Dougie has been bitch slapped to the curb, once again 💖

        • Your “FULL comment” is bullshit.

          Reply

          • Posted by Tough Love on October 8, 2020 at 4:52 pm

            Why, because it doesn’t support your VERY biased agenda ?

          • “lol …… you 2-faced piece of dog-manure.”

            How very colorful. If only I could find an appropriate meme.

            No, sir, my agenda, as you may recall, is “Truth, justice, and the American Way.”

            Healthcare alone, and particularly retiree healthcare, are as much, or more, of the underfunding problem for public workers than are pensions.

            And retiree healthcare costs for the lowest paid state workers is MUCH higher, as a percent of wages than for the average or higher paid worker (33 percent or more.)

            That, and pensions, particularly for the lowest paid public worker, are driving that 28 percent advantage.

            Both of my faces would be more than happy to see an accounting of the result of —eliminating— retiree healthcare for the lowest paid Connecticut public workers.*

            And exulted to see the calculations of reducing or eliminating the pensions of the lowest paid.*

            “It is not a simple matter to calculate the public sector compensation premium or penalty paid at different wage levels.” (Biggs)

            No kidding.

            My agenda, if anything, is for The Yankee Institute for Public Policy, or The American Enterprise Institute, or Andrew Biggs, or anyone, to acknowledge that the 28 percent (average?) advantage is misleading, at best.

            “… a typical public sector employee receives total compensation that is approximately 28 percent higher than is paid to a comparable private sector worker.”

            ” Put another way, Connecticut state and local governments could reduce annual employee compensation costs by approximately $2.8 billion without causing public sector workers to be paid less than their private sector counterparts.”

            Simple question… Which workers?

            Less simple question… How would those reductions affect other Connecticut state and local government costs? I.e., welfare, SNAP, MedicAID, etc.?

            *No, I am not at all recommending these reductions, just the calculations.

          • Posted by Tough Love on October 8, 2020 at 6:47 pm

            Quoting Stephen Douglas …………….

            ““lol …… you 2-faced piece of dog-manure.”

            How very colorful. If only I could find an appropriate meme.”

            Look in the mirror !

          • Simple question… Which workers?

            Less simple question… How would those reductions affect other Connecticut state and local government costs? I.e., welfare, SNAP, MedicAID, etc.?

          • Posted by Tough Love on October 8, 2020 at 10:04 pm

            Actually those reductions (especially if done nationwide) would have a HUGE beneficial impact for American Society …. as a WHOLE.

            WHY ? ………….. Because with this HUGE group of Public Sector workers NO LONGER getting vastly more generous (and costly) healthcare and retirement security benefits, they would have little choice but to join WITH (yes WITH) their Private Sector counterparts to demand that FEDERAL Elected Officials raise the bar to a “reasonable” level* for all workers, both Public and Private Sector.

            Of course YOU (as a supporter of everything “Pubic Sector”) wouldn’t really be happy with that. Because for you Stephen, EQUAL is not good enough.

            * one clearly LESS generous than what Public Sector workers used to get, but MORE than what Private Sector workers used to get.

          • In your heart, you know I’m right, Grasshopper.

          • Posted by Tough Love on October 9, 2020 at 2:42 pm

            Stephen,

            Re-read my above comment …. with your Public Sector bias put aside.

            I’m calling for EQUAL.

          • Posted by Rex the Wonder Dog! 🐶🐶🐶🦴🦴🦴 on October 9, 2020 at 2:54 pm

            Quoting Stephen Douglas …………….

            ““lol …… you 2-faced piece of dog-manure.”

            How very colorful. If only I could find an appropriate meme.”

            Look in the mirror !
            BAM! Dougie will never recover… LOL@ “you 2-faced piece of dog-manure” 🙂
            Next time pick up after yourself Dougie !

  2. Posted by Tough Love on October 8, 2020 at 2:17 pm

    WOW, I must be onto something ……. I suggested THIS in a comment yesterday !

    “Pelosi questions Trump’s health, says ‘we’re going to be talking about the 25th Amendment’”

    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pelosi-trump-talking-25th-amendment

    Reply

    • Posted by Anonymous on October 9, 2020 at 11:09 am

      When democrats accuse republicans of something, it’s very likely that the democrats are guilty of the accusation. Here, both Pelosi and Biden are demented, senile, not to mention evil. lol

      Reply

  3. Yes, you may be on to something…

    “President Trump on Thursday swiped at two of his most loyal Cabinet members and his FBI director…”

    They are not prosecuting my political enemies fast enough!

    The Deep State and the dark forces are everywhere.

    This is a man on the edge.

    Reply

  4. Posted by Tough Love on October 8, 2020 at 5:17 pm

    Article … “The 48 most unhinged lines from Donald Trump’s Fox Business interview”

    LOTS of heavy stuff in there, but this one (#11) was really off-the-wall.

    “”I’m back because I’m a perfect physical specimen and I’m extremely young. And so I’m lucky in that way.””

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/08/politics/donald-trump-maria-bartiromo-fox-business/index.html

    Reply

  5. Posted by Tough Love on October 8, 2020 at 7:55 pm

    Lol …………. flipping/flopping/flipping/flopping Trump.

    First ……. lets “negotiate” on a Stimulus package

    Next ……. I’m DONE, nothing until AFTER the Election

    Then ….. We’ll ONLY do individual items (airlines, etc.)

    Today ….. A Broad Stimulus deal is the way to go.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/08/politics/stimulus-negotiations-latest-trump-reversal/index.html

    —————————-

    Does ANYONE really think Trump gives a crap about what’s included in a Stimulus package, or who is or will continue to suffer ?

    His ONLY ONLY ONLY interest is ……. What will help get me re-elected?

    Reply

    • Posted by Anonymous on October 8, 2020 at 8:19 pm

      TL , you constantly hijack Bury subject matter. Are you ever ashamed of doing this? Yeah, 25th Amendment. Fucking ridiculous. Biden is a Chinese asset. Biden is a Russian asset. Biden is a racist. Get it? Really don’t know why your TDS is raging when NJ will vote for socialist Hiden Biden. Take a chill pill.

      Reply

      • Posted by Tough Love on October 8, 2020 at 8:27 pm

        From your comment, clearly you wouldn’t care or be bringing this up if I supported the unfit/dangerous moron now in the White House.

        Enjoy kissing his fat/deranged ass for a few more months ……… as he will ASSUREDLY be rightfully kicked out in short order.

        Of course NJ will be voting Democratic, but to SAVE America, Trump must go.

        Reply

        • Posted by Anonymous on October 8, 2020 at 10:10 pm

          Democrats will bail out your frothhy public pension that you fight so hard against, but yet you will vote for them. Not to mind a clearly demented racist Chinese enabler. So go vote Biden, a clear traitor to our country.

          Reply

          • Posted by Tough Love on October 9, 2020 at 9:41 am

            Hmm ……. and who is it that is CLEARLY beholden to Putin, and who likely has some “dirt” on him ?

          • Posted by PS Drone on October 9, 2020 at 1:06 pm

            Biden needs to win so that Hunter can get back to “earning” the big bucks he will need to support his stripper love child. And, of course, the Dems need open borders so that they can have a steady stream of illegal voters to keep them in power ad infinitum. It is support for these types of things that stimulate TL to be so filled with TDS and to look forward to voting for Dementia Joe and President Harris.

          • Posted by Rex the Wonder Dog! 🐶🐶🐶🦴🦴🦴 on October 9, 2020 at 2:48 pm

            Biden needs to win so that Hunter can get back to “earning” the big bucks he will need to support his stripper love child.
            well then PS Drone, you’re going to LOVE this one (Hunter, Archer and Heinze are all BFF’s from their Yale college days):
            For Hunter Biden’s Ukraine/China Business Partner — Orange is the New Black

            “Hunter Biden’s business partner in all his business ventures abroad was a man named Devon Archer. Biden and Archer came to know each other through their shared relationship with Christopher Heinz, son of the late Pennsylvania Senator John Heinz, and the step-son of John Kerry … And it was Archer, already a member of the Board of Directors of Ukraine natural gas company Burisma Holdings, who recommended Hunter Biden to be named to an open Director spot on the Burisma Board even though Biden didn’t speak Ukrainian, had no experience in the energy sector, and had just been kicked out of the US Navy Reserve for drug use. Hunter was named to the Board one month after VP Joe Biden was made the “point man” in the Obama Administration to deal with Ukraine issues.

            >>>>>The Board position came with an $80,000 a month paycheck.<<<< [$1 MILLION/year 🤮🤮🤮}

            https://www.redstate.com/shipwreckedcrew/2020/10/09/937894/

    • Posted by geo8rge on October 10, 2020 at 5:19 pm

      The President can only veto a stimulus package. Congress creates and votes on it.

      Reply

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