NJ Actuarial Reports – The Believable Numbers 6/30/16

The June 30, 2016 actuarial reports for the New Jersey Retirement System are out and there are a few numbers therein that can be taken seriously (none involving liabilities or even the market value of assets considering all those self-valued alternative investments) since there is very little prettying-up actuaries can do with these ugly numbers:

nj16

The next few blogs will examine these reports in detail but when you put these believable numbers in historical perspective going back to 6/30/11 a definite pattern emerges with outflow always going up – exceeding $10 billion for the first time even without COLAs – while inflow varies with political whims.

 

8 responses to this post.

  1. Posted by dentss dunnigan on February 28, 2017 at 9:48 am

    In 5 short years the payouts have gone up 30% from 7.7 B to 10.3 B ..with payouts increasing almost 10% in 2016 alone …this snowball is gaining speed and size .

    Reply

  2. Posted by skip3house on February 28, 2017 at 9:55 am

    $10 Billion going out……$5 Billion coming in

    Certainly need no fortune teller to understand results coming.

    Reply

  3. Posted by Anonymous on February 28, 2017 at 10:46 am

    http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/02/christie_eyeing_horizons_reserve_money_for_state_b.html

    I know healthcare is complicated, at least according to the Prez, but I thought the SHBP was claims reimbursement based (plus a small admin fee – ha ha) so how can any (excess) reserves from Horizon funnel back to the State?

    Reply

  4. Posted by Anonymous on February 28, 2017 at 11:03 am

    Duh of course the burn rate is increasing with the writing on the wall it’s a get it before it’s gone mentality.

    The “State” total deposits to withdrawals are, on average, reflecting an ~40% funding and the “Locals” an ~60% funding (primarily attributable to taxpayer contributions, ie property taxes).

    Reply

  5. Posted by StanFL on March 1, 2017 at 8:56 am

    Are there any investment returns in this pie? If they are $10B, this is a rosy picture. If they are $1B, this is sad.

    Reply

  6. Posted by Anonymous 8 on March 1, 2017 at 3:39 pm

    Does the $10.2 billion in Benefit Payouts include post-retirement medical spending?

    Reply

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