Not only am I not being informed when I watch news reports about Wall Street, but I swear to God, it feels like I am somehow having information erased from my brain. Jimmy Dore
There was an njspotlight story on how a plan for New Jersey to put in their pension contributions in 1/10th intervals would cost more than the 1/7th schedule purportedly in place now which included a handy chart that the actuaries would have developed that had a column projecting the state’s Annual Recommended Contribution (ARC) through 2045.
For FY2045 the guess was that the ARC would be $5.06 billion. For FY2018 the full 7/7ths amount was estimated to be $4.48 billion. That comes to a 13% increase in the ARC over 27 years.
But according to a recent bond disclosure filing over the last 6 years the full ARC for the state portion of the plans actually went up 76% from $2.231 billion $3.935 billion:
Projecting that $3.935 billion ARC for FY2015 to FY2045 using the actual percentage increase over the last 6 years would develop an ARC in FY2045 of $67 billion. Again, the number the actuaries came up with to present to decision-makers and the public for FY2045 was $5.06 billion. Hardly a rounding error.