In response to an OPRA request I was informed that the July 1, 2012 Actuarial Reports on all plans in the New Jersey Retirement System will not be publicly available until after the Annual Division of Pensions and Benefits Board Meeting commencing March 4, 2013. As of March 5, 2013, you can retrieve the Actuarial Reports at the following website: http://www.state.nj.us/treasury/pensions/actuarial-rpts.shtml.
Prior valuations reported underfundings of:
$28.4 billion – 6/30/07
$36.3 billion – 6/30/10 after revisions
which I interpreted for the five largest plans:
6/30/08: $33 billion, 73% to $133 billion, 31%
6/30/09 – $44 billion, 66% to $150 billion, 30%
6/30/10: $52 billion, 62% to $159 billion, 30%
6/30/11: $40 billion, 68% to $162 billion, 30%
This will be the fifth year that I will interpret these valuation reports into reality and the real funded percentage should remain between 30% and 40% depending on whether you believe the courts will reinstate COLAs. As to the March 5 headline, my prediction:
N.J. pension fund is underfunded by $50B, as gap continues to grow
The accrued liability should officially rise from $127 to $132 billion and the actuarial (pretend) value of assets has to drop from $87 billion since there is only $71 billion in the plan now and that’s been the number for a while as contributions and inflated earnings replace payouts. This smoothed asset value is the wild card as more games could still be played. What do you think? Forget about the real unfunded number which hovers around $170 billion. What will they tell the people?